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    The relationship between China and Japan is important but not trouble-free for both countries. Although there are common Japanese and Chinese interests in political stability, economic development and a peaceful international environment, and both see their bilateral relationship as critical, the dispute over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands suggests deep antipathies exist between the two countries which can easily become difficult to control.
    The bilateral relationship will be increasingly difficult to manage in the future for several reasons. The passage of time, subtle shifts in the relationship and the broader strategic issues now impinging on the attitudes of each to the other have reduced the importance of historic and cultural links and increased the sensitivity of the relationship. Both countries are concerned to a limited extent with the military modernisation of the other, and both see the actions of the other as having changed the strategic environment.
    Provided the leaders on both sides can avoid an action–reaction process—and there are some signs that this need is recognised—Japan and China are unlikely to become overt adversaries. But neither are they likely to become close allies in the near future. A breakdown in the relationship, however, would have serious implications for regional security.
     
    Introduction
    In the immediate post-Cold War period, scholars and policy makers looking at strategic issues in the Asia–Pacific region tended to concentrate on Japan’s prospective military capacities and intentions. China’s strategic importance was judged to have diminished with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Yet, only a few years later, discussion about security issues in the region now centres on China.
    Much of the literature continues to see regional security issues within the traditional strategic focus, the bilateral security relationships between the US and countries in the region. Although there are other important bilateral US arrangements with Australia, Korea and the Philippines, and broader regional security relationships such as the Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA), the bilateral relationship between the US and Japan remains pivotal, with substantial implications for the regional security order.
    The customary approach, however, misses some of the complex dynamics of the region’s new security environment. In the first place it focuses attention on a somewhat narrow military concept of security. Yet comprehensive security, particularly the security of resource supplies, has been central to Japan’s security concerns for a long time. China is also increasingly seeing that country’s economic, scientific and technological competence and international competitiveness as the basis of its growing national strength and security.1 Other issues such as health, crime, the environment and terrorism are also entering security discussions. Second, bilateral relations between the countries of the region, and specifically that between Japan and China, have so far received less attention.2 The securityrelationship between Japan and China is critical to both countries but past military relations still colour their current relationship and new security concerns have emerged. An understanding of their attitudes and responses depends upon some recognition of historical and other factors influencing the way each reacts to the other’s actions.
    Third, it tends to consider regional security in a geographically constrained way, ignoring or underplaying the broader geopolitical context of the issues involved. Bilateral relationships, and the China–Japan relationship in particular, will remain basic determinants of the regional security environment. A strongly adversarial relationship between China and Japan would be regionally divisive and affect critically the various dimensions of regional security; a close relationship that dominated the region could be similarly disruptive. Such outcomes would be disturbing for the global role of the US. China and Japan will adjust their own foreign policy approaches as their links with other major powers, particularly with the US, evolve. A critical influence is the trilateral relationship between the US, China and Japan and what role the US plays in the region.3

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