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    Housing affordability: distribution and
    trends
    Key points
    ? House price increases have significantly reduced housing affordability over the past decade but, in
    recent years, this has been at least partially offset by lower mortgage interest rates.
    ? Housing affordability differs across New Zealand, with dwellings in Auckland typically the least
    affordable.
    ? Most indicators suggest that housing affordability has improved in recent years relative to the peak
    of the 2000s house price boom. However, house price-to-income ratios remain elevated and
    would require sharp falls in house prices to return to long-term averages. Affordability measures
    that include financing costs are currently around their longer term averages.
    ? Housing affordability is lowest among those who are younger, single, have lower income and
    wealth, live in Auckland, or belong to an ethnic group other than New Zealand European. Notably,
    during the last house price boom housing affordability became a constraint for some middle-
    income groups, whereas it had previously mainly been an issue for those on lower incomes.
    ? Over the last decade, rents have increased far less rapidly than house prices and the share of
    income that households spend on rent has fallen in most years since 1996. This apparently benign
    aggregate situation, however, disguises a more difficult situation for those on lower incomes who
    often spend over a third of their income on rent payments.
    ? The most recent data suggest that upward pressures on rents are beginning to emerge.
    ? The pockets of extreme unaffordability highlighted in the chapter suggest that there may be
    structural issues with some aspects of the housing market. These are examined in detail in
    subsequent chapters.
    28
    Housing Affordability
    5
    Population and demographic change
    Key points
    ? Over the last 30 years New Zealand has experienced: population growth well above the OECD
    mean; volatile immigration; an ageing population; cultural and ethnic diversification; and a radical
    transformation of family structure. All these changes have driven a large increase in underlying
    demand for housing.
    ? Since 1971, population growth has resulted in roughly 450,000 new households and the decrease
    in average household size has created an additional 350,000. Between 2001 and 2006, an average
    of 22,000 additional households were formed each year.
    ? Demand pressures have differed markedly by region. This is driven by cross-regional differences in
    external and internal net migration and age, family and ethnic structures. Auckland has accounted
    for roughly 40% of New Zealand’s net household formation over the last 10 years.
    ? As well as influencing underlying demand for dwellings, population growth and demographic
    changes have also influenced tenure choice, with some groups in New Zealand more likely to rent
    than own their homes.
    ? Looking to the future, in nearly all parts of the country the average household size is likely to
    continue falling, implying increased housing demand. New Zealand’s population is also likely to
    continue growing strongly. Much of this growth will occur in the Auckland region, putting pressure
    on the regional housing market. For example, the Department of Building and Housing currently
    projects a shortfall of 90,500 dwellings in Auckland alone over the next 20 years (although a
    surplus is projected in other regions).
    ? The impact of underlying demand on house prices ultimately depends on the responsiveness of
    housing supply in the context of other demand drivers, such as income growth.

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