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    The New Zealand housing market
    Key points
    ? Reflecting a confluence of global and domestic drivers, New Zealand experienced a house price
    boom over the 2000s that was widely dispersed across the country. Although unprecedented in
    recent history, this boom was not out of line with the experience of a number of other OECD
    countries.
    ? Over the course of the 2000s boom, house price increases tended to be stronger in areas with
    relatively low house prices initially. However, despite houses being among the most expensive in
    the country, the Auckland market continued a well-established trend of relatively strong house
    price increases. This ‘divergence’ in Auckland house prices compared to the rest of the country
    was especially pronounced at the lower end of the Auckland housing market.
    ? The responsiveness of housing supply in New Zealand is around average in international
    comparison, but about half as effective as in a number of better-performing OECD countries. As
    such, demand increases are estimated to lead to proportionately larger increases in house prices
    than in new house construction.
    ? Supply responsiveness varies across the country, with implications for house price dynamics in
    regional housing markets. This may be related to the efficiency with which local councils
    implement and enforce regulations governing the land development and construction sectors.
    ? Land prices are a large and increasing share of the price of dwellings – particularly in Auckland,
    where the Metropolitan Urban Limit has constrained land development and put upward pressure
    on land prices. Available evidence suggests that construction costs have increased and are high in
    international comparison. This highlights land release and other regulatory hurdles, along with a
    poor performance in the construction sector, as impediments to a more effective supply response.
    ? Reflecting a number of factors including high land prices, most new housing supply is directed at
    the top end of the market, with very little new supply aimed at affordable housing.
    ? The available evidence suggests that the quality of the New Zealand housing stock is poor,
    particularly for rental dwellings.
    ? Over the 2000s boom, rents increased by significantly less than house prices, allowing the rental
    market to act as a ‘safety valve’. This exacerbated a tenure shift away from owner-occupied
    dwellings to rental. Indicative of missing rungs on the housing ladder, the share of ‘intermediate
    renters’ – who have at least one member in paid employment but still can’t afford to buy a house –
    increased markedly, particularly in Auckland.
    ? Barriers to the efficient functioning of the housing market have a negative effect on affordability
    that accumulates over the decades and goes well beyond the impact of house price cycles,
    including the house price boom over the 2000s. By the same token, even if supply responsiveness
    can be significantly improved, the New Zealand housing market will still experience house price
    cycles to some extent, with attendant implications for affordability.
    26
    Housing Affordability
    3
    Macro-economic factors
    Key points
    ? The housing market affects, and is influenced by, developments in the wider economy. This
    interdependence has the potential to amplify significantly economic disturbances that originate
    both within and outside of the housing market.
    ? The housing market boom in the 2000s was not unique to New Zealand. Other OECD countries
    had a similar experience, pointing to a confluence of global influences as having been at play.
    These included the emergence of global economic and financial imbalances and innovations in
    financial policy frameworks (both monetary and prudential) that turned out to be destabilising.
    ? New Zealand-specific factors were also at work, some of which amplified the housing boom and
    others that helped to soften the subsequent ‘bust’.
    -
    Housing dominates households’ asset portfolios in New Zealand. At the start of the boom in
    the early 2000s, immigration increased sharply at the same time as the policy interest rate was
    comparatively low.
    -
    At the end of the boom, New Zealand experienced a softer correction relative to some other
    countries, because home loan defaults have been comparatively rare and because the
    economy has been helped by external influences such as the resilience of Asian economies.
    ? Housing markets that show large variations in prices can complicate macroeconomic and financial
    market management. Differences in housing supply regimes help to explain differences in cyclical
    house price movements. Hence finding ways to improve the supply responsiveness of the housing
    market can facilitate management of the macro-economy.

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